The 13th general election will be the most watched election in Malaysian history. For the first time ever, the opposition is trying to unseat BN from Federal power instead of just trying to deny BN as many seats as possible. It is the culmination of the many battles for the future of Malaysia with Pakatan Rakyat leading the charge.

But BN is a behemoth which is not easy to unseat. It possesses an inexhaustible war chest, controls the mass media and has corrupted all the institutions of democracy to help it maintain power. It is also not above using dirty tricks as well as threats or promises whichever suits the situation. Despite PR fighting on the side of democracy and people empowerment the winds of war may blow either way.

If PR wins a different course will be charted for the nation which will lead to a better future where the nation and its people can achieve its full potential. But if BN wins surely we can all continue with the status quo for the foreseeable future?

This is optimistic but completely wrong! We cannot stay the same, we will either progress or go backwards. Staying still is not an option. Even if we could stand still others going forwards will soon leave us far behind.

Sick man of Asia

First of all let us disburse ourselves of the notion that Umno will change. Humbling losses in the 12th general election has not changed Umno in the least, what more if BN wins the next election? Umno will continue to rule in its corrupt way as if it has the right to plunder the nation. It will also continue to abuse the institutions as if they are a branch of Umno with scant respect for the rule of law. As a party rooted in racial politics expect no changes to the nation’s racial policies.

But Umno governing in the same style does not mean things will stay the same. The nation’s resources are finite for a start. Greed also has a way of increasing exponentially. The economy can only take so much corruption, senseless mega projects, rent seeking and other abuses before it caves in.

We can expect the brain drain to accelerate in the wake of a BN victory. It’s bad enough now with 300,000 of our best and brightest leaving each year for foreign shores but it’s going to get worse as people stampede for the exit driven by the expectation that things can only get worse. Let’s not forget that capital flight also follows human flight which is a double blow to the economy.

Both private and foreign investments will continue to decline due to a lack of confidence. Foreign investors see no reason to come in due to the corruption, high crime rate, tainted judiciary, lack of skilled personnel, religious extremism and disrespect for human rights. Government pump priming to drive the economy is not sustainable.

Malaysia’s policy of driving exports based on a weak ringgit clobbers consumers with low purchasing power while discouraging industries from increasing productivity, efficiency and innovation to compete globally. With a weak ringgit our dream of becoming a high income country is just a hopeless chimera.

With unabated corruption and economic decline come high inflation, high taxes and a depreciated ringgit to make live harder for the man in the street. GST will be ramped up to cover the declining revenue base. Real wages which has stayed stagnant for the past 15 years will continue to decline in the face of rising cost of living which will make the poor poorer and squeeze the middle class. The income gap between the politically connected elite and the rest will widen. The middle class will weaken and may almost disappear.

Race relations will be no better despite the intense sloganeering without any real political will to roll back divisive race based policies which divide the races. The shrinking economic pie will fuel a rise in race based economic demands and deepen racial polarization. Lack of meritocracy and feelings of being disadvantaged by race will continue to feed the brain drain.

Does this sound familiar? Widespread masses of poverty with weak or no middle class, a super-rich elite, huge income gap, weak currency, high corruption, poor race relations and the country held together by an autocratic leadership. Yes, this describes Indonesia under the Suharto regime. In line with our economic decline we may also overtake Indonesia in the export of maids and replace the Philippines as the sick man of Asia.

How long will we take to reach an Indonesian style standard of living? Mind you, we are talking about the Indonesia under Suharto, not the Indonesia which is progressing faster than us now and may overtake us in future. My estimate is fifteen years from now.

It sounds terribly fast but take note that economic decline has a way of accelerating as it feeds on its own decline. A declining economy causes more brain drain and less private investments which in turn causes further decline and the cycle continues. We may have been on the downward trend slowly for the past 30 years but we do not have the luxury going downhill at the same slow rate.

Zimbabwe of the East

If you think that we will stop sliding down at the level of Suharto’s Indonesia then think again. If BN continues to rule there’s no reason why we should stop there, an unpleasant level though it may be. No, there’s Mugabe’s Zimbabwe waiting for us to join them.

This is when things get painful. The ringgit will depreciate to a fraction of its value and public utilities like water, electricity, sewerage, hospitals and waste collection become stricken due to lack of investment, reduction in paying consumers and lack of money to maintain them. Malaysian drivers will adopt a new driving style as public roads become hopelessly potholed. Inflation, unemployment and crime will shoot to record highs while the only thing going down is life expectancy.

Basic commodities will be in short supply while controlled prices of essential goods will become a joke as none will be available at those prices. Laws to control runaway inflation will worsen commodity shortages as goods are driven underground into a thriving black market. There will be a parallel market of expensively priced goods for those who can afford to pay, probably in foreign currency. Needless to say, the middle class will be totally wiped out; you are either a super-rich elite or a poverty stricken ordinary bloke.

The regime will not be able to win elections without resorting to widespread oppression, heavy handed political violence and blatant cheating. Mugabe still managed to win elections despite the hellhole he put his people in, by foul means of course. The violence and the oppression will drag down the economy further. The regime is now hanging by a thread and in danger of being booted out by revolution, the inevitable result of not being able to be changed by peaceful election.

How long will it take to become the Zimbabwe of the East? Another ten years from the level of Suharto’s Indonesia, no more.

The other Malaysia

At this stage I may be tempted to say, “Run when you still can” but wait. Wait till the 13th general election and vote. Now imagine if PR wins the election and imagine the Malaysia that could arise.

A new Malaysia where all races are equal partners in the economic and social life of the country while the special rights of the Malays guaranteed under the constitution will remain protected. Corruption will not be tolerated, social justice upheld and the rule of law paramount. 

Under the new PR government, wide-ranging reforms are carried out to repair severely damaged democratic institutions. The judiciary, the police, the MACC and the Election Commission will be rejuvenated with reforms which accord them true independence from the executive and good men appointed to helm these institutions. An independent police complaints commission is set up and a host of oppressive laws such as the ISA, OSA, UUCA and PPPA repealed.

Priority is given to revive the economy and make it competitive on a global scale. Rent seeking activities are abolished, useless projects cancelled and open tenders conducted for all government contracts. One-sided agreements with toll concessionaires and IPPs are re-negotiated to bring down the price of utilities. Wasteful leakages are plugged and the billions saved used to subsidize basic commodities and finance productive projects.

Foreign investments will flow in with competitive market policies without race based restrictions and private investments will accelerate with the removal of race based policies and the new found confidence. With robust economy activity the ringgit appreciates to new heights.

The much abused NEP is replaced by the Malaysian Economic Agenda which channels affirmative action based on need instead of race so help flows to those who really needed it. With proper economic management, foreign inflows and a stronger ringgit, the per capita income of the people is multiplied and Malaysians will be on the way to a high income economy.

In the new climate of meritocracy and equal opportunities, the brain drain which had afflicted Malaysia for decades will reverse itself. The country will no longer bleed its best and brightest youth to foreign shores and many local professionals and specialists who had gone overseas will make a beeline back to the country they still called home. Meritocracy in education will revive our universities to recapture their place as among the world’s best.

The end of race based policies and racial politics will bring the various races closer together. In schools and colleges, in work places and entertainment outlets, people of all races mingle and interact in the spirit of genuine friendship. Malaysia will become a shinning beacon of democracy and a vibrant mixing pot where the various races live together in harmony while retaining their unique cultures and traditions. A true ‘Bangsa Malaysia’ begins to emerge.

This is the dream of the other Malaysia freed from BN’s corrupt rule. It’s up to the voters to make this dream come true.